Oh, Mike “Boogie.” It’s your third time in the Big Brother house, and you’re well on your way to taking home the big prize for the second time … and without the help of your greatest cohort, Dr. Will. But you have a new Dr. Will this season in the person of Frank (the Tank), who indulges you in your annoying joint Diary Room sessions just like in the bad old days. No one seems to realize that you have been controlling the game for the past few weeks, even after you didn’t hit the button to reset the game. It was pretty easy to steamroll your way through the All Stars edition, with only Janelle in your way then. And you managed to take her out before she got close to the final three this time around. So, in your head, it must seem like you have a lock on winning this game. But do you really?
I don’t think it’s as sure a thing as he does. Yes, he’s managed to take out the players he doesn’t like, and he’s managed to align Britney, Dan, and their sole, former team mates with him and Frank. Of course, that will only last as long as it has to … once Joe, Wil, Ian, Ashley and Jenn are gone. Once you’re aligned with Boogie, you’re aligned with Boogie, and out of the Silent Six alliance, Frank is the only person who really has that safety net. The rest are expendable to him, but it really comes down to who goes to the final three with him.
And here’s the thing … I don’t believe he has a chance of winning if he takes Frank to the final two. Boogie has manipulated and played the game like a champion behind the scenes, but Frank has been the comeback kid twice now — one week nominated, the next week HOH. The members of the Jury will have to take that into consideration, and if they feel resentment for being sent packing, as long as Frank wasn’t the one putting them on the block, all of that resentment is going to come back on Boogie (and Frank needs to start laying low after this week). Plus, with one winner, Boogie, and one newbie, Frank, in the final two, who would YOU give the big prize to? Someone who’s already won and parlayed that win into an investment in several hoity-toity LA restaurants, or the really well-liked, unemployed guy who loves his Nana? It’s not a tough choice at that point.
Boogie’s other option is Dan, but I don’t think he’d win against Dan either. Two previous winners in the final two would prove a dilemma for the Jury, but I still think people would see Dan as a strategic player and Boogie as dirty. Boogie needs to keep his options open when deciding who’s got the target on their back each week. This week, it’s loud-mouth Joe … or Wil … or Dan? Boogie’s real problem, or perhaps his saving grace, is Frank starting to go rogue. After Joe was the sole vote against Frank on Thursday, he was the natural choice for nomination this week. Wil could have just been a pawn, but he pulled a Janelle by not answering a direct question about who should go next and now Frank would rather he be the evictee this week. But, Frank suddenly wants Dan out of the house too, despite the fact that Dan is probably their strongest ally … and biggest threat (at least Boogie’s; I still think Frank would win over Dan in the final two as well simply because Dan has already won and everyone presently likes Frank). Boogie is worried that Frank will go completely off track and backdoor Dan (and he could have cause to worry come the Power of Veto competition), making them both the least trustworthy people in the house. But both of them, especially Boogie, have to think long term.
If Boogie wants to win, he has to keep Ashley or Jenn to the final three and let fate have at it and hope Frank goes out third (which would mean Boogie would have to win the final HOH comp so he could make that decision, or cut a deal with whoever else is in the final three to keep him over Frank, should they win, so Boogie doesn’t have to do the dirty work). In All Stars, Boogie had no competition in the final two (Erika, while popular, was not a master game player), and to win this time he’s going to have to make sure he has no competition at the end. Frank and Dan are both competition. He would not have won All Stars had he been up against Dr. Will or Janelle, and he won’t win this season against Frank or Dan. Boogie’s only hope for winning is keeping those “floaters” in the house, otherwise it’s going to be second place this time around (which would be less than what he would have won had he remained just a coach!). If you were in Boogie’s shoes, would you keep Frank to the end (loyalty might help him in the eyes of the Jury), or take someone who’s basically been a non-player? Sound off in the comments below!
Clacked by Chuck Duncan 
on Aug 12, 2012 @ 22:49 EST5EDT
I think the mistake we’re making is overlooking the ladies. I have no doubt (after watching the latest episode) that Dan is going to neutralize Boogie, probably sooner rather than later. The two are incapable of trusting one another for enough time to make it work, especially with Frank gunning for Dan. Meanwhile, Britney’s going to slip through to the later stages of the game, and we wind up with someone like Danielle or Shane winning it all.
*POST AUTHOR*
I wouldn’t mind seeing a Britney/Danielle final two. Say what you will about Dan’s coaching methods, but they seem to have worked on Danielle. She’s really surprised me with how she’s come aggressively out of her shell. And I was a big fan of Britney’s during her first season, and she got totally screwed by being so trusting, so hopefully she’s learned a thing or two (and she gives good Diary Room). I’m more surprised all the girls haven’t teamed up. Why Brit, Janelle and Danielle didn’t join forces and get Jenn and Ashley aboard could have changed things last Thursday. There always seems to be a girls’ alliance, so it’s surprising they haven’t come together now that the coaches are players.
I really don’t know why people are anti-Boogie. The past few weeks, he’s been a master game player. With weird loyalty. Dan’s comment about being surprised that he wasn’t nominated because you can’t trust Boogie shows that the entire house knows that Boogie is Frank’s puppet master. And in the final two between Frank and Boogie, no one is going to reward the puppet. I don’t him see to be in the position to win, because he’s been there multiple times, and he doesn’t even want to play (which I admire), but final three would be good.
I don’t understand why Frank is such a target. Every week, everyone wants to get him out. So he doesn’t have the support everyone says he does. If Boogie wasn’t invested in his survival, he would be out by now. If Boogie wasn’t around, Frank would put up Dan, which is a ridiculous move at this point. And he trusts Shane. He is a personable idiot that gets lucky with comps sometimes (especially when his ex-coach who doesn’t want to get his hands dirty throws it to him).
I kind of hope that Ian makes it to the final two. His geeking out over the coolness of Frank’s NASA hat made me so gleeful. I wonder if BB let them know about Curiosity, or if it was just timely promo?
I would like Britney to get to the final two. She would loose against Dan. At this point in the game, I think that’s the only person she would loose against. The two of them have been controlling things since Day 1. I think Dan’s done it more subtly, so less blood on his hands.
Still, it’s still too early to make the call. When does Jury kick in?
*POST AUTHOR*
Boogie’s always been a master game player. I just hate that he has to continually remind us of how great he is (and I just know a little too much about him outside the game to like him). I loved Janelle’s reaction to his goodbye video. But you still have to have some kind of likability in the house and if he’s like that on every message to the people he’s orchestrated getting evicted, he’s not going to win many votes. There’s something to be said about being humble. And that, he’s not. Frank is a target because he can win comps and he’s so darn charming (and he loves his Nana … how can you not appreciate that … and he’s unemployed, and Boogie is pretty well off, so why give him more money?). That’s what everyone is afraid of going up against in the end. It would be more fair to see Frank and Shane in the final two, or Britney and Danielle, or some combination of the four. Really give the jury a lot to consider when voting besides if they like the person. Danielle has surprised me lately, Shane was a surprise because I expected some clueless meathead with him (and Frank), and I’ve been a Britney fan since her season. I like that she really watches people, can feign surprise with the best of them (or interest in some scheme), and plays more strategically than physically. I felt so bad for her last time that I hope she gets to the end this time (or goes out before that so it’s not so heartbreaking).
Jury should be when they’re down to 9 players in the house, I believe. Six will be sent to the house and the third place finisher will be the seventh member (who usually doesn’t get to go to the Jury House, but it depends on how the episodes are structured).
I respect people who own their actions. So that’s why I have respect for Boogie. Yeah, he’s an ass, but he owns it and doesn’t blame anyone else, so respect, especially in this crazy game. I don’t see him getting to final 2, but I hope he goes far.
I still don’t understand the Frank appeal. Lots of people love their Nana. He’s won 1 competition on his own. The other was thrown to him. Shane’s a bigger threat.
I think the girls haven’t aligned because they aren’t the same types of girls. I think if Janelle and Jenn had teamed up, that could have worked. Britney and Danielle are solid, but Ashley and Jenn are never going to be a realistic part of their team, and they know it. They’re the odd balls to the two glossy girls. If Janelle hadn’t played the ice queen card, especially being a new mom, I think she would have gone a lot further. I have watched BBAD, and Britney and Danielle have shown that mean girls don’t grow out of high school. And when you have those who haven’t evolved past mean girls with those who have, or never where and are grown, they aren’t ever going to align. It shouldn’t be surprising that it’s basically the misfits vs. cool kids right now with some of the misfits being non-entities to avoid attention.
That being said, I do love Britney. Her shock face when Janelle was nominated was great.
I also love that none of the coaches have won a competition since the reset. I have a feeling they won’t until it’s absolutely necessary.