Pre-season predictions: Monday

It’s almost that time. Season premieres are right around the corner. With that in mind, it’s time to start thinking about just what all of those scheduling shenanigans are going to mean for the new season. It will be easy to look back on it all around Thanksgiving and say, “Yep, they puked on their shoes there.” But isn’t it more fun to say it before any episodes even air? A little first guessing, if you will. We’ll kick things off with Monday, and hit all the nights over the course of this week. Get your picks in now, so when the numbers are in for November sweeps you can come back and tell us all, “I told you so!” Is Big Bang Theory the new #1 comedy on TV? Can How I Met Your Mother really lead off the night? Will viewers come back to Heroes?

There are a lot of interesting things going on with the Monday schedule this year. Starting at 8, I think we can just ignore Dancing With The Stars. I see no reason to believe that it’s not going to get its usual numbers. I would look for it to be the most watched show, while trailing House in the demo. The more interesting bits are on CBS and NBC.

If the team down at Heroes HQ thought they had it tough last year, wait until they run into the buzzsaw that is Dr. House. It could spell an unfortunate end for the show. Oddly enough, based on what we know now, it could end up that Heroes is back on top creatively (the circus, Rob Knepper, etc.), but falters based on past actions. Will anyone come back to the show with so many other options? I think not, and expect it to ultimately fall short of the numbers from last season.

Over at CBS, the move of Big Bang Theory to 9:30 is a great thing. That is, a great thing for Big Bang Theory, but I’m not so sure it’s the best thing for CBS. The last few weeks have been very interesting as BBT has actually started beating 2 ½ Men in the demo. That points to the very real possibility that we could finally have a new #1 comedy after all of those years with Charlie and Alan at the top. The outlook isn’t quite as bright for How I Met Your Mother, or by extension, Accidentally On Purpose. I’m still not convinced that How I Met Your Mother can deliver the CBS Monday kind of numbers all on its own. And with AOP, I’m not so sure that Jenna Elfman can carry a show. My best guess is that the numbers are down for the CBS 8-9 hour.

At 9, CBS will rule. DWTS will make some noise in viewer numbers, but be handled easily in the demo by the Men/Big Bang combination. The outlook for Trauma isn’t good. The Heroes audience has eroded to a point that it’s not going to deliver a great lead-in. And building an audience from scratch while facing down three of the top ten shows on TV is a tall order. Lie To Me, on the other hand, is sitting pretty good. FOX did damage the show with the ridiculous move to 8:00 in the spring, but it should do well tucked in behind House.

At 10:00, there’s no real question at #1. Horatio and the gang at CSI: Miami will take this one in a cakewalk. The more interesting battle will be between Castle and Jay Leno. Nobody really has any idea what Leno’s numbers are going to look like. I would expect them to start out solid, and tail off as we get into the season. The novelty of Leno at 10 will be good for a couple weeks, but it’s ultimately going to come out below what the network was doing with scripted material there. It just remains to be seen whether or not the network can make enough money with the cheaper to produce Leno hour to keep at it. In the long run, I think Castle will outlast Jay and take the second spot. Not that 2nd guarantees anything. There are certain expectations that come from following DWTS.

I left the CW out of the main time period discussion, because the audience is so small that I don’t see it really having an effect on the overall picture. The swapping of One Tree Hill and Gossip Girl is interesting though. Gossip Girl did suffer a noticeable drop when House entered the Monday picture last season. I suppose this could be seen as a test to see if the One Tree Hill viewers are more loyal than the Gossip Girl fans. Or, it could just be that the end is near for One Tree Hill and the network is doing what it can to protect the future. I think it will work, and this is the best case scenario for Gossip Girl. Look for it to improve over the numbers from the end of last season.

What do you think? Big Bang #1? Is Heroes back? Can HIMYM do Big Bang numbers at 8?

Clacked by Brett Love
on Aug 31, 2009 @ 13:00 EST5EDT